What's driving BP
Research summary
Can Cocuina-Manakin Replenish Atlantic LNG Gas Supply?
Why it matters now
BP's participation in Cocuina-Manakin could affect upstream gas production and associated revenue; the project also has a supply-demand channel through its planned Atlantic LNG allocation.
Next checkpoint
BP earnings (expected 2026-10-30)
What would break the thesis
The project fails to progress, or the stated Atlantic LNG gas allocation is withdrawn or materially reduced.
Research drivers
Can Cocuina-Manakin Replenish Atlantic LNG Gas Supply?
Cocuina-Manakin is positioned to support Atlantic LNG through a majority gas-marketing allocation, although the supply benefit remains conditional on project development and investment approval.
Source claims
Atlantic LNG has struggled in recent years due to declining domestic natural gas supplies in Trinidad, which has constrained output and forced the closure of one of its four trains.
Development at Cocuina-Manakin is progressing toward a final investment decision, which sources expect by the end of the year.
The Cocuina-Manakin field contains 1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves and straddles the maritime boundary between Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela, with the Cocuina section forming part of Venezuela's undeveloped Delta
BP and NGC have agreed to market 70% of the Cocuina-Manakin project's gas to Atlantic LNG, which operates Latin America's largest liquefied natural gas export facility.
The remaining 30% of produced natural gas at Cocuina-Manakin will be used in petrochemicals.
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